Because Cory was Disappointed
Everyone knows Obama won Iowa (by 9%) last week. And by now, everyone knows that Hillary won New Hampshire yesterday (by just 2%). But does everyone know the following?
* New Hampshire traditionally votes against Iowa's results (out of spite or independance)?
* New Hampshire skews heavily towards establishment in its politics. The winners yesterday were the most politically seasoned and still electable (Clinton and McCain). Sorry, Bill Richardson, you're more seasoned but New Hampshire likes the "sure thing" (see below)
* New Hampshire's Democratic winner NEVER wins the general election (kerry in 2004, gore in 2000, tsongas in 1992, dukakis in 1988, mondale in 1984). The last time they picked a Democrat that won it all, it was Carter (1976)
* Obama's poll numbers (which showed him with a double-digit lead) did NOT include undecided voters - and 18% of NH democrats and independants said they made up their mind on Election Day.
* Hillary's win is not a "comeback" as she is now banging the gong Bill did with his second place finish in 1992 - she was up by double digits there just 2.5 weeks ago. So in the end, she's lost a significant amount of ground.
Just some food for thought. Oh, and here's the fantastic speech he gave yesterday.
Enjoy.
Everyone knows Obama won Iowa (by 9%) last week. And by now, everyone knows that Hillary won New Hampshire yesterday (by just 2%). But does everyone know the following?
* New Hampshire traditionally votes against Iowa's results (out of spite or independance)?
* New Hampshire skews heavily towards establishment in its politics. The winners yesterday were the most politically seasoned and still electable (Clinton and McCain). Sorry, Bill Richardson, you're more seasoned but New Hampshire likes the "sure thing" (see below)
* New Hampshire's Democratic winner NEVER wins the general election (kerry in 2004, gore in 2000, tsongas in 1992, dukakis in 1988, mondale in 1984). The last time they picked a Democrat that won it all, it was Carter (1976)
* Obama's poll numbers (which showed him with a double-digit lead) did NOT include undecided voters - and 18% of NH democrats and independants said they made up their mind on Election Day.
* Hillary's win is not a "comeback" as she is now banging the gong Bill did with his second place finish in 1992 - she was up by double digits there just 2.5 weeks ago. So in the end, she's lost a significant amount of ground.
Just some food for thought. Oh, and here's the fantastic speech he gave yesterday.
Enjoy.
Labels: gobama
2 Comments:
It's also worth noting that, even though Hillary got more votes, she still received the same number of Pledged Delegates as Obama - meaning that she is still trailing when it comes to the thing that actually determines who wins.
(At least that's how I interpret the system)
Also, Tom Brokaw's comments about not getting to worked up about poll results was like a ray of clarity in an increasingly speculative media landscape.
I did not know of any those New Hampshire tidbits.
Thanks! :-)
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